Bagaimana Intelijen Menilai Kelangkaan BBM » INTELIJEN INDONESIA

Tuesday, July 12, 2005

Bagaimana Intelijen Menilai Kelangkaan BBM

Selama beberapa minggu ini, Indonesia dilanda masalah serius kelangkaan BBM, ditandai dengan kenaikan harga yang melambung dan keresahan publik di sejumlah daerah.

Tak urung berbagai pihak terkait seperti Presiden, Pertamina, Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral, Pengamat Ahli, Politisi, serta sejumlah Anggota DPR memberikan komentar dan usulan untuk mengatasi masalah tersebut. Presiden bahkan menunda rencana kunjungannya ke tiga negara yaitu China, Thailand, dan Brunei dengan tekad menuntaskan masalah BBM sebelum kunjungannya ke luar negeri.

Intelijen domestik dimanapun dunia, hampir selalu mengaitkan kerawanan dari suatu persoalan ke lingkaran politik kekuasaan. Hampir bisa dipastikan pola analisa intelijen politik yang sarat dengan pendekatan politik tersebut akan menganalisa bahaya kelangkaan BBM terhadap kredibilitas pemerintahan Yudhoyono. Kegagalan Presiden mengatasi masalah BBM saat ini akan sama dengan hilangnya potensi Yudhoyono untuk terpilih kembali pada pemilu 2009, atau bahkan bila sangat parah akan bisa menjatuhkannya di tengah jalan.

Analisa intelijen secara umum akan mengarah pada pencarian faktor utama penyebab kelangkaan BBM. Apakah akibat kecerobohan Pertamina, apakah akibat dampak yang wajar dari sistem ekonomi global yang interdependen, ataukah ada permainan politik di level distribusi BBM ke seluruh wilayah Indonesia.

Analisa berikutnya akan lebih khusus mengarah pada bagaimana seharusnya Presiden berperilaku dan bertindak sebagai seorang pemimpin/manager dalam mengelola krisis dan prioritas pekerjaan . Penundaan kunjungan ke luar negeri dalam tempo sesaat tentu merupakan langkah positif yang intelijen bisa dipastikan ikut menyarankannya. Tetapi yang lebih krusial adalah tentang bagaimana langkah penyelesaiannya.

Ada sedikit kejanggalan dalam kebijakan hemat energi baru-baru ini. Dalam merespon kelangkaan BBM dengan hemat energi ada kesan kelemahan pemerintah di bagi-bagi ke seluruh masyarakat. Seyogyanya slogan hemat energi hanya sebatas himbauan dan bukan peraturan tertentu, karena penghematan dalam ekonomi sama dengan turunnya produktifitas dan melemahnya pembangunan.

Langkah-langkah yang seharusnya perlu ditempuh oleh pemerintah mencakup perencanaan jangka panjang adalah pengembangan energi alternatif di samping BBM serta pemeliharaan dan peningkatan stabilitas ekonomi yang mampu mendukung ketersediaan cadangan energi nasional.

Langkah-langkah jangka pendek tentunya segera mengembalikan stabilitas ketersediaan BBM dan kepastian harganya. Hal ini tentunya tidak terlalu sulit bila memang keuangan negara mencukupi untuk "sementara" menutupi kekurangan yang ada. Sementara rasionalisasi harga BBM nasional Indonesia yang masih dibawah standar internasional yang akibatnya membuat pemerintah dibebani biaya subsidi seyogyanya sedikit demi sedikit dihapuskan. Tetapi memang bagaimana membuat harga BBM yang standar internasional itu tidak terasa mahal di mata rakyat menjadi persoalan yang kemudian melilitnya.

Apakah lantas intelijen ekonomi dan energi hanya menyajikan catatan yang demikian? bisa jadi cuma begitu, tetapi bisa juga ada tawaran-tawaran pilihan yang bisa mengeluarkan pemerintah dari persoalan BBM. Setidaknya sejauh ini, dalam tataran nasional langkah-langkah pemerintah belum bisa dipuji tetapi juga belum pantas di caci maki karena soal BBM.
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Disclaimer:
Information within this email contains "forward |ooking statements" within
the meaning of Section 27Aof the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21B of
the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Any statements that express or involve
discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans,
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are not statements of historical fact and may be "forward |ooking statements".
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from ir marketing. Forward loking statements in this action may be identified through
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